Yesterday went 0-2 in NHL. Philly lost 4-1, Montreal beat Ottawa in a close one. Both didn't go our way. But the NBA underdog wins saved the night. Can't ask for more than that when half your slate bombs.
Today we've got a stacked NHL card. 13 power plays on the board. Filter out the heavy favorites and we're down to three diamond picks: Anaheim, Florida Panthers, and Dallas Stars. That bracket sits at 57% win rate across 94 games. Not as hot as the raw power plays at 60%, but the odds are juicier.
The underdog value edge is 28-17. Panthers are tonight's play there. Jackets sit at 51% to win, making Florida the technical underdog, but it's really a 50/50 split.
On the NBA side, I've been working on a model shift. Consensus gives each of our three models equal say. Nexus-3 weights the highest-performing model more. The difference is real: 63% vs 67% over almost 200 games. It cuts out the brutal 20% long shots that consensus sometimes grabs. I'm rolling Nexus-3 out as the main engine.
First half of NBA was excellent. Second half has been a grind. That's why we're making adjustments. Data shows the path forward.
NHL elite tier is still cooking at 140-82. That's the backbone of the portfolio right now.
Full slate at otterline.club