Model consensus, value spots, performance tracking, and experimental signals — all in one place.
Today's Recommended Plays
Sniper · Vector 4 · Value spots
3/3 model agree + MoneyPuck confirms. Elite sniper tier only.
No sniper picks today. Check Vector-3 on NHL Consensus.
Recent
Slate and top combo win rates.
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NHL
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NBA
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Combos
Top combos
NHL consensus by agreement level (4 models).
Key counts for 2026-03-16.
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NHL
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NBA
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Sniper
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Power
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Value
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3/4
60%+ combo win rate, 30+ sample size. Latest slate: 2026-03-16.
DALUTA @ DAL
DETCGY @ DET
COLPIT @ COLUnderdog-focused model edges. Showing latest available slate (2026-03-14).
NYRNYR @ MIN
CARCAR @ TB
VANSEA @ VANPower Plays + 70+ AI rating + 40–59% market odds. 2026-03-16 slate.
10%+ edge where combo win rate beats market odds. 2026-03-16 slate.
Weighted scoring across MP, CB, OL, and CL. Tiering is based on total score.
Elite
1-1 (50%)
Verified
4-1 (80%)
Strong
0-3 (0%)
Lean
2-1 (67%)
Split
1-0 (100%)
| Matchup | MP | CB | OL | CL | Pick | Tier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | Elite | 9.5 |
| SJ @ MTL | MTL | MTL | MTL | MTL | MTL | Elite | 9 |
| COL @ WPG | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL | Verified | 8 |
| TOR @ BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | BUF | Verified | 8 |
| ANA @ OTT | OTT | OTT | OTT | OTT | OTT | Verified | 6.5 |
| CGY @ NYI | NYI | NYI | NYI | NYI | NYI | Verified | 6.5 |
| CHI @ VGK | VGK | VGK | VGK | VGK | VGK | Verified | 6.5 |
| BOS @ WSH | WSH | WSH | WSH | WSH | WSH | Strong | 5.5 |
| PIT @ UTA | UTA | UTA | UTA | UTA | UTA | Strong | 5.5 |
| NYR @ MIN | MIN | NYR | MIN | MIN | MIN | Strong | 5 |
| CAR @ TB | TB | TB | TB | CAR | TB | Lean | 4.5 |
| LA @ NJ | NJ | LA | NJ | NJ | NJ | Lean | 4 |
| SEA @ VAN | SEA | SEA | VAN | VAN | SEA | Lean | 3.5 |
| CBJ @ PHI | CBJ | PHI | PHI | CBJ | CBJ | Split | 3 |
Strategic Advantages
Edges · divergences · situational spots
3/4 consensus; who disagreed.
No 3/4 games. Full agreement or no slate.
Wide model confidence gap.
None.
By signal strength.
None today.
Rest, momentum, and form-based dog signals. Latest slate: 2026-02-05.
Upset kings, vulnerable favorites, and live fades for 2026-03-16.
BUF
MTL
SEA
CGY
PITDET
CBJ
ANA
STL
FLA
MINSEANYR
WSH
SJS
TORNo live upset signals today.
MP/CBS dissents vs 4+ model consensus. 2026-03-16 slate.
Home consensus with MP + CBS aligned (4+ models). 2026-03-16 slate.
DALUTA @ DALCOLPIT @ COLDETCGY @ DETContextual edge patterns for 2026-03-16.
Performance Tracking
Records · head-to-head · confidence buckets
Track which vector build is actually converting the best tiers.
Standard model agreement baseline.
Overall
2-model core using MP and OL only.
Overall
3-model build with heavier Moneypuck influence.
Overall
4-model balanced version with full agreement spread.
Overall
Direct disagreements between Vector-3 and Vector-4.
V3 Wins
V4 Wins
Pending
3/3 Consensus + MP 55-63%
3-Model Core: MP + CB + OL
Vector-3 Elite tier (7.0+ score)
Vector-3 Verified tier (6.0-6.9 score)
Vector-3 Strong tier (4.5-5.9 score)
Vector-3 Lean tier (3.0-4.4 score)
4-step filter: WR + Situational + Momentum + Signals
Signal conflicts we correctly faded
55%+ combo WR + underdog value
2+ consensus with 56%+ combo WR
Underdog picks with model confluence
All games with a consensus pick
Best historical combo for each game
Highest win rate individual model
Score-margin study across all graded NHL consensus picks. Shows how many losses would have been saved by one-goal protection.
Overall
50% of all NHL consensus losses were recoverable with 1-goal protection.
Moneyline
246-183 (57.3%)
Protected 1.5
340-89 (79.3%)
Recovered losses
94 (51.4% of losses)
OT/SO saved
56
Elite
Recovered 58 losses · 32 OT/SO
Moneyline
154-101 (60.4%)
Protected 1.5
212-43 (83.1%)
Strong
Recovered 32 losses · 23 OT/SO
Moneyline
75-73 (50.7%)
Protected 1.5
107-41 (72.3%)
Lean
Recovered 4 losses · 1 OT/SO
Moneyline
17-9 (65.4%)
Protected 1.5
21-5 (80.8%)
This is a diagnostic layer, not a full tradable spread model. Favorites do not have a real `+1.5` equivalent in market terms.
Today picks from top model combos.
No combo picks today.
All games today with consensus pick.
No NHL games today.
Confidence bucket hit rates across Chattyline, Otterline, and MP.
BUF +18u · Fade WPG -13.1u
BUF31-12+18u72%
NYI25-15+12.9u63%CBJ24-17+8.8u59%DAL27-12+8.5u69%STL19-21+7.2u48%
WPG13-26-13.1u33%
LAK14-26-12.4u35%
VGK18-25-11.4u42%VAN12-27-11.1u31%NYR13-26-10.8u33%Tools & Calibration
Odds calibration · shortcuts
Calibration Heatmap (Win Rate %)
| Models | <45% | 45-49% | 50-54% | 55-59% | 60%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0%(0/1) | 50%(1/2) | 60%(12/20) | 63%(15/24) | 56%(23/41) |
| 3 | 57%(4/7) | 64%(7/11) | 32%(7/22) | 58%(14/24) | 62%(8/13) |
| 2 | 57%(4/7) | 43%(6/14) | 46%(6/13) | 63%(5/8) | - |
5 historical edge patterns
No edge spots today.
1 historical fade patterns
No fades today.
3 models · 55-59% · 9/13
4 models · 55-59% · 15/24
3 models · 50-54% · 5/8
4 models · 50-54% · 12/20
3 models · 60%+ · 3/5
3 models · 45-49% · 3/5
NBA consensus performance by implied probability bucket.
| Models | <45% | 45-49% | 50-54% | 55-59% | 60%+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 36%(4/11) | 83%(5/6) | 33%(1/3) | 86%(6/7) | 75%(42/56) |
| 2 | 46%(17/37) | 63%(5/8) | 25%(4/16) | 50%(7/14) | 83%(58/70) |
| 1 | 0%(0/4) | - | - | 0%(0/1) | 100%(1/1) |
Jump to key pages.
NBA
All games today with consensus pick.
No NBA games today.