THE OTTERLINE

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The Lab

Model consensus, value spots, performance tracking, and experimental signals — all in one place.

0NHL games
0NBA games
0Power Plays
0Sniper

Today's Recommended Plays

Sniper · Vector 4 · Value spots

Sniper Mode

60-49 · 55%Consensus →

3/3 model agree + MoneyPuck confirms. Elite sniper tier only.

No sniper picks today. Check Vector-3 on NHL Consensus.

Since 2026-02-03: 60-49

Recent

BOS @ BUF
BUF · MP 59%
BOS @ BUF
BUF · MP 58%
WPG @ VGK
VGK · MP 61%
DET @ TB
TB · MP 60%
CGY @ SEA
SEA · MP 60%

Signal Summary

Stream

Slate and top combo win rates.

0

NHL

0

NBA

0

Combos

Top combos

  • otterline_+_moneypuck_+_cbs_+_dunkel75%
  • otterline_+_chattyline_+_moneypuck_+_cbs63%
  • chattyline_+_moneypuck_+_cbs_+_dunkel62%

Vector 4 Tiers

Full board →

NHL consensus by agreement level (4 models).

4/4 Elite433 · 254-179 (59%)
3/4 Verified289 · 148-141 (51%)
2/4 Strong88 · 43-45 (49%)
0-1 Lean0 · 0-0

Today at a glance

Key counts for 2026-05-01.

0

NHL

0

NBA

0

Sniper

0

Power

0

Value

0

3/4

Platinum Picks V2

78-47 (62%)

60%+ combo win rate, 30+ sample size. Latest slate: 2026-05-01.

No Platinum picks logged for 2026-05-01.
Platinum: 78-47 (62%)
Fades Hit: 24-33

Daily Dog

66-75 (47%)

Underdog-focused model edges. Showing latest available slate (2026-04-30).

Weak10-10
50% hit rate
Strong43-48
47% hit rate
Solid13-17
43% hit rate
ANAANAEDM @ ANA
SolidW

Otter Edge

Power Plays + 70+ AI rating + 40–59% market odds. 2026-04-30 slate.

No Otter Edge picks for 2026-04-30.

Verified Juice

10%+ edge where combo win rate beats market odds. 2026-05-01 slate.

No Verified Juice picks for 2026-05-01.
Vector‑4 Decision Model1 games
1-0 (100%)

Weighted scoring across MP, CB, OL, and CL. Tiering is based on total score.

Split

1-0 (100%)

MatchupMPCBOLCLPickTierScore
DAL @ MINMINDALMINMINMINSplit2

Strategic Advantages

Edges · divergences · situational spots

Dissenter Watch

Consensus

3/4 consensus; who disagreed.

No 3/4 games. Full agreement or no slate.

Confidence Spread

Consensus

Wide model confidence gap.

None.

Situational Dog

Rest, momentum, and form-based dog signals. Latest slate: 2026-02-05.

NYR
NYRCAR @ NYR
Rest Edge
2/5

Upset Tracker

21-8

Upset kings, vulnerable favorites, and live fades for 2026-04-30.

Upset Kings
BUFBUF
3-0100%
MTLMTL
4-180%
SEASEA
4-180%
CGYCGY
2-167%
PITPIT
2-167%
DETDET
2-167%
CBJCBJ
2-167%
ANAANA
2-250%
Vulnerable Favorites
CHICHI
3-0100%
NYRNYR
7-464%
TORTOR
7-464%
SJSSJS
7-464%
FLAFLA
11-761%
SEASEA
6-460%
MINMIN
17-1455%
NSHNSH
7-654%
Live Signals

No live upset signals today.

Contrarian Call

16-14 (53%)

MP/CBS dissents vs 4+ model consensus. 2026-05-01 slate.

No contrarian calls today.

Home Ice + Smart Money

166-115 (59%)

Home consensus with MP + CBS aligned (4+ models). 2026-04-30 slate.

No home-ice smart money picks today.

Situational Edge

3 signals

Contextual edge patterns for 2026-04-30.

ANA
ANAEDM @ ANA
CBS + OL agree (Pacific)
62%
46% odds
MIN
MINDAL @ MIN
3/4 on underdog (47%)
56%
47% odds
MIN
MINDAL @ MIN
CBS lone dissenter · Low-confidence split
47%
47% odds

Performance Tracking

Records · head-to-head · confidence buckets

Vector Showdown: V2 vs V3 vs V4

Track which vector build is actually converting the best tiers.

Since 2026-02-03

Consensus

Standard model agreement baseline.

Baseline

Overall

257-21155%
23 pending
4/4 Agree135-91 (1)
60%
3/4 Agree88-79
53%

Vector-2

2-model core using MP and OL only.

Overall

204-15157%
1 pending
Elite58-31
65%
Verified41-22
65%
Strong28-29 (1)
49%
Lean77-69
53%

Vector-3

3-model build with heavier Moneypuck influence.

Leading

Overall

128-8361%
37 pending
Elite76-40 (17)
66%
Verified24-29 (6)
45%
Strong25-14 (14)
64%
Lean2-0
100%

Vector-4

4-model balanced version with full agreement spread.

Overall

137-9958%
5 pending
Elite9-2
82%
Verified45-19 (3)
70%
Strong28-35
44%
Lean47-34 (2)
58%

Head-to-Head

Direct disagreements between Vector-3 and Vector-4.

0

V3 Wins

0

V4 Wins

0

Pending

Record Tracker
1907-1438 (57%)
Sniper Mode60-49 (55%)

3/3 Consensus + MP 55-63%

Vector-3 Overall128-83 (61%)

3-Model Core: MP + CB + OL

V3 Elite76-40 (66%)

Vector-3 Elite tier (7.0+ score)

V3 Verified24-29 (45%)

Vector-3 Verified tier (6.0-6.9 score)

V3 Strong25-14 (64%)

Vector-3 Strong tier (4.5-5.9 score)

V3 Lean2-0 (100%)

Vector-3 Lean tier (3.0-4.4 score)

Platinum V278-39 (67%)

4-step filter: WR + Situational + Momentum + Signals

Platinum Fades24-33 (42%)

Signal conflicts we correctly faded

Diamond Edge64-55 (54%)

55%+ combo WR + underdog value

Power Plays235-154 (60%)

2+ consensus with 56%+ combo WR

Value Edge31-20 (61%)

Underdog picks with model confluence

Consensus Overall445-365 (55%)

All games with a consensus pick

Combo Watch263-199 (57%)

Best historical combo for each game

Best Model: MP452-358 (56%)

Highest win rate individual model

NHL 1.5 Protection Tracker

Score-margin study across all graded NHL consensus picks. Shows how many losses would have been saved by one-goal protection.

426 graded

Overall

50% of all NHL consensus losses were recoverable with 1-goal protection.

+21.9 pts

Moneyline

243-183 (57.0%)

Protected 1.5

336-90 (78.9%)

Recovered losses

93 (50.8% of losses)

OT/SO saved

55

Elite

Recovered 57 losses · 31 OT/SO

+23.0 pts

Moneyline

148-100 (59.7%)

Protected 1.5

205-43 (82.7%)

Strong

Recovered 31 losses · 22 OT/SO

+20.4 pts

Moneyline

79-73 (52.0%)

Protected 1.5

110-42 (72.4%)

Lean

Recovered 5 losses · 2 OT/SO

+19.3 pts

Moneyline

16-10 (61.5%)

Protected 1.5

21-5 (80.8%)

This is a diagnostic layer, not a full tradable spread model. Favorites do not have a real `+1.5` equivalent in market terms.

Best Combo Picks

Performance

Today picks from top model combos.

No combo picks today.

NHL Full Slate

Full board

All games today with consensus pick.

No NHL games today.

AI Confidence Tracker

311-256

Confidence bucket hit rates across Chattyline, Otterline, and MP.

Chattyline
54.2%(225)
80-100%30-13 (69.8%)
70-79%28-24 (53.8%)
60-69%38-31 (55.1%)
50-59%26-35 (42.6%)
Otterline AI
53.7%(205)
80-100%19-9 (67.9%)
70-79%21-14 (60.0%)
60-69%28-30 (48.3%)
50-59%42-42 (50.0%)
MoneyPuck
57.7%(137)
65-69%9-1 (90.0%)
60-64%19-12 (61.3%)
55-59%22-17 (56.4%)
50-54%29-28 (50.9%)

Blind Bet Tracker

639 games

BUF +18u · Fade WPG -13.1u

Bet Every Game
1.BUFBUF31-12+18u72%
2.NYINYI25-15+12.9u63%
3.CBJCBJ24-17+8.8u59%
4.DALDAL27-12+8.5u69%
5.STLSTL19-21+7.2u48%
Fade Every Game
1.WPGWPG13-26-13.1u33%
2.LAKLAK14-26-12.4u35%
3.VGKVGK18-25-11.4u42%
4.VANVAN12-27-11.1u31%
5.NYRNYR13-26-10.8u33%

Tools & Calibration

Odds calibration · shortcuts

Odds Calibration

Calibration Heatmap (Win Rate %)

Models<45%45-49%50-54%55-59%60%+
40%(0/1)50%(1/2)60%(12/20)63%(15/24)56%(23/41)
357%(4/7)64%(7/11)32%(7/22)58%(14/24)62%(8/13)
257%(4/7)43%(6/14)46%(6/13)63%(5/8)-
>60% 45-60% <45%
Active Edges

5 historical edge patterns

No edge spots today.

Active Fades

1 historical fade patterns

No fades today.

Top Combo Patterns
CBS+CL+MP69%

3 models · 55-59% · 9/13

CBS+CL+MP+OL63%

4 models · 55-59% · 15/24

CL+MP+OL63%

3 models · 50-54% · 5/8

CBS+CL+MP+OL60%

4 models · 50-54% · 12/20

CBS+CL+OL60%

3 models · 60%+ · 3/5

CL+MP+OL60%

3 models · 45-49% · 3/5

NBA Odds Calibration
188-105 (64%)Toggle

NBA consensus performance by implied probability bucket.

Models<45%45-49%50-54%55-59%60%+
338%(5/13)86%(6/7)40%(2/5)82%(9/11)73%(47/64)
249%(21/43)63%(5/8)38%(9/24)53%(8/15)78%(73/93)
10%(0/5)100%(1/1)-0%(0/1)67%(2/3)
Active Edges (n≥5, WR≥60%)
3-Model @ 60%+73% (47/64)
2-Model @ 60%+78% (73/93)
3-Model @ 55-59%82% (9/11)
2-Model @ 45-49%63% (5/8)
3-Model @ 45-49%86% (6/7)
Fade Alerts (n≥5, WR≤40%)
2-Model @ 50-54%38% (9/24)
3-Model @ <45%38% (5/13)
1-Model @ <45%0% (0/5)
3-Model @ 50-54%40% (2/5)

NBA

NBA Full Slate

Full board

All games today with consensus pick.

No NBA games today.