How to Use Otterline
Four rules. No exceptions. This is how you win over time.
The 4 Rules
Follow these. No exceptions.
No Parlays
Straight bets only. Parlays kill your edge over time.
Winner First
Default to moneyline. NHL may flag +1.5 protection on qualified underdogs.
0.5–1u Per Game
Stay small, survive variance. No max bets.
Featured Picks Only
Power Plays, Diamonds, Mladek, POTD. Ignore the rest.
The Otterline Mindset
We're not trying to predict every game. We surface featured picks—situations where our models agree and historical data backs them up. When they fire, you bet. When they don't, you wait.
What We Are
- • Featured picks with proven edges
- • Moneyline-focused, straight bets only
- • Disciplined, flat-unit betting
What We're Not
- • A parlay system or "locks"
- • Betting every game on the slate
- • Immune to losing streaks
Unit Sizing: 0.5–1u Per Game
A "unit" is your standard bet size—typically 1-2% of your total bankroll. We keep it simple: 0.5–1 unit per game, flat betting, no exceptions.
- • $1,000 bankroll → $10-20 per bet
- • $5,000 bankroll → $50-100 per bet
- • $10,000 bankroll → $100-200 per bet
- • Removes emotional decision-making
- • Survives variance and losing streaks
- • Lets the edge compound over time
No max bets. No chasing. The goal is survival through variance—stay small, stay in the game.
Unit Size Calculator
Survivability-first sizing
Bankroll
Bets / Day
Risk Style
Max Losses
21
Days Buffer
7
Reserve
$50
Size Up At
$583
Variance Is Normal
Even at a 56% win rate (which is excellent), you'll experience significant swings. This is math, not bad luck.
The edge is invisible day-to-day. It shows over months.
Sample Size Matters
You can't evaluate results after 5-10 bets. The minimum sample to draw meaningful conclusions is 50-100+ picks.
This is why we track performance over the entire season and display long-term records prominently.
Understanding Your Dashboard
These are your featured picks. Only bet these categories.
Power Plays
High-confidence picks where 2-5 models agree AND the specific combination has a 55-60%+ historical win rate.
Bet 1 unitDiamond Picks
Our best value plays of the day. Model consensus + good market price. Backed by 60%+ historical combo win rate.
Bet 1 unitMladek Spotlight
Daily curated pick from the Mladek model—our best underdog value opportunity of the day.
Bet 0.5–1 unitPick of the Day (POTD)
The single highest-conviction pick across all models. One pick per day, curated from the strongest signal.
Bet 1 unitReading the Numbers
Key metrics you'll see across widgets and what they actually mean.
Combo Win Rate (65%)
This specific combination of models (e.g., "Otterline + MoneyPuck + CBS") has won 65% of the time historically when they all agreed.
Consensus Count (3/4)
3 out of 4 models picked this team. But consensus alone isn't enough — always check the combo WR.
Polymarket Odds (45%)
The betting market gives this team a 45% chance. If our models agree at higher win rates, that's potential value.
Elite Combo Badge
A named, high-performing model combination (e.g., "Catalyst", "Power Core"). These earn their names through consistent results.
How TO Use Otterline
How NOT to Use Otterline
The Lab
ExperimentalThese features are NOT for betting yet
The Lab contains beta features we're actively testing. They have limited historical data and are not recommended for actual betting decisions. We share them publicly so you can see our R&D process, not as picks to follow.
Current experiments include:
What Makes a Pick Graduate?
Lab features move to the main dashboard when they prove themselves. Here's our criteria:
Minimum sample size
Above breakeven at -110
Not just hot streaks
Explainable, not random
The Bottom Line
No parlays. Moneyline only. 0.5–1 unit per game. Featured picks only. Follow the rules, trust the process.
Quality over quantity. Consistency over emotion. Long-term over short-term.