Back from the All-Star break and the board is wide open.
Yesterday went 3-3. Not terrible, not great. Model went 5-4 on the NBA slate, which is fine. The break threw off some timing but we're back in rhythm now.
The Landscape
Thunder, Nuggets, and Cavs are the top favorites according to the oddsmakers, and I get it. But let me tell you where I'm seeing value.
Boston at +1200 is absurd. They're getting zero respect despite having a core that's been to the Finals twice in three years. Brunson is playing at an All-NBA level, and if McBride comes back healthy from that core muscle injury, this team is different. The numbers don't lie: +13.4 net-rating with Brunson and McBride together, dropping to +7.6 without him. That's a massive swing for a team trying to beat the Cavs in the East.
Detroit is the surprise of the season. Best record in the East right now. Nobody saw it coming, but the model had them projected for improvement and they've delivered. That's the kind of fade that cost people in January.
Today's Picks
NBA
OKC → OKC Denver is banged up and on the second night of a back-to-back. Thunder at home with the best record in the league. This is a fade on the champs at your own peril.
Cleveland → Cleveland They're fighting for positioning with Detroit. Away game but the Cavs have covered in 7 of their last 10 against teams with a losing record.
Boston → Boston Plus value at +1200 outright. That's not a pick for today, that's a season-long lean. Take the outright while the odds are still there.
Detroit → Detroit Half unit. They're hot but the line has caught up. Still value at home against a mediocre opponent.
Full slate at otterline.club