Went 4-6 yesterday. First night back from the break and the model was cold. Happens.
The Break Didn't Help
Three units lost on the Timberwolves game alone. They were up 12 at halftime and just completely folded. That's the thing about back-to-back rust - you can't simulate game speed in practice. Denver shot 61% in the second half. That's not variance, that's a team that wanted it more.
NBA model now sits at 142-118 on the season. That's a 54.6% clip. Not enough to get rich but enough to stay afloat.
Today's Picks
NBA
DET → DET (half unit)
Detroit at +1400 to win the Finals is the play here. I know, I know - they haven't won a playoff series since 2008. But look at the numbers. They're 38-15. That's good for the best record in the East right now. Second-best defensive rating in the league at 108.3. They qualify under the 40-20 rule - only Thunder, Spurs and possibly Celtics are in that club.
The physicality is the thing though. Phil Jackson's old "prison ball" theory - if the playoffs get reffed like last year, Detroit's style wins. They're bruising. They're annoying. That's what wins in May.
NYK → NYK
Knicks need McBride back. That's the key variable nobody's talking about. They go from +13.4 net-rating with him to +7.6 without. That's a massive drop. Brunson alone isn't enough in the East with Cleveland and Detroit rolling.
If McBride returns before playoffs, Knicks are undervalued at current odds. If he's out long-term, fade them. Simple as that.
OKC → OKC
Still the defending champs. Still the top seed in the West. Nuggets are right there but I trust the Thunder in a seven-game series against anyone. SGA is that dude.
Full slate at otterline.club